Polymarket runs prediction markets on the questions traders actually want to wager on. Browse the categories below to see the kinds of questions you can trade.
A clean yes-or-no question with a fixed resolution date. Shares pay $1 if your side wins, $0 if it loses. Prices between 1¢ and 99¢ tell you what the market thinks the probability is.
Multiple candidates or possibilities for a single event - think nominees, winners, or champions. Trade each outcome as its own line. Only one outcome resolves Yes.
For questions with numeric answers, like price ranges or vote totals. Markets are sliced into buckets so you can take a position on the range you think will resolve.
Markets that resolve only if a precondition is met. Useful for questions like "if X is elected, will Y happen?" Conditional markets isolate the variable you actually want to trade.
Every category runs on the same mechanics. The difference is the kind of expertise that pays off. Find the corner of the world you know best and put it to work.
Election outcomes, primary races, legislative votes, cabinet appointments, and policy decisions. The category that put prediction markets on the map.
Which party will win the next presidential election?
Will a particular bill pass the legislature this session?
Price targets, protocol launches, ETF approvals, and regulatory decisions. Crypto-native traders use Polymarket to express views the spot market can't price directly.
Will Bitcoin trade above a given price target before year-end?
Will a major Layer-1 ship its next protocol upgrade on schedule?
Championship odds, season win totals, individual awards, head-to-head outcomes. A market for every fan who thinks the public is wrong.
Which team will win the championship this season?
Will a player reach a given statistical milestone before season's end?
Central bank moves, inflation prints, GDP figures, unemployment data, and recession calls. The data points that move every other market.
Will the central bank cut rates at its next meeting?
Will headline inflation come in below a given threshold for the next print?
Awards shows, opening weekends, viral moments, streaming hits, and entertainment rankings. The questions everyone has an opinion on.
Which film will win Best Picture at the next major awards ceremony?
Will a particular release open above its tracking projection?
Product launches, AI benchmarks, regulatory decisions, space missions, climate milestones, and research breakthroughs. The slow-burn questions that quietly reshape everything.
Will a major frontier model clear a given benchmark threshold?
Will a planned launch happen within its announced window?
Markets are proposed and reviewed for clear resolution criteria before they go live. Each question includes:
If something unexpected happens, disputes get reviewed openly and resolved against the published rules. The goal is simple: when you place a trade, you should know exactly what wins and what loses.
Open an account and start trading on the questions you've already been arguing about.